The key equity indices traded ended with substantial losses today due to rising trade tensions, even though the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates and moved to an accommodative stance. Markets remained under pressure as investors awaited for crucial consumer price index (CPI) and manufacturing data from Europe, U.S. and India, which could influence global economic outlooks. The Nifty ended near the 22,400 level.

The weekly Nifty50 Futures & Options (F&O) series expiry was shifted to today due to the market holiday tomorrow in observance of Shri Mahavir Jayanti.

PSU bank, IT and pharma shares corrected while FMCG, consumer durables and auto shares advanced.

As per provisional closing, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, slipped 379.93 points or 0.51% to 73,847.15. The Nifty 50 index lost 136.70 points or 0.61%, to 22,399.15.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.73% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index fell 1.08%.

The market breadth was weak. On the BSE, 1,535 shares rose and 2,350 shares fell. A total of 145 shares were unchanged.

The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of the market's expectation of volatility over the near term, jumped 4.83% to 21.43.

RBI Monetary Policy Meeting Outcome:

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) has voted to reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points with immediate effect.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its 54th meeting from April 7 to 9, 2025 under the chairmanship of Sanjay Malhotra, Governor, Reserve Bank of India.

After assessing the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, the MPC unanimously voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6% with immediate effect.

Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) shall stand adjusted to 5.75%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate to 6.25%.

This decision is in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth.

MPC also decided to change the stance from neutral to accommodative. However, it noted that uncertainties remain high in the wake of the recent spurt in global volatility. Hence, the rapidly evolving situation requires continuous monitoring and assessment of the economic outlook.

On the domestic front, the RBI slightly lowered its GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5%, down from 6.7% in its previous outlook. In Q1 it is projected at 6.5%; Q2 at 6.7%; Q3 at 6.6%; and Q4 at 6.3%. The risks are evenly balanced.

On inflation, the RBI appears more optimistic. It now projects CPI inflation for FY26 at 4%, down from the earlier 4.2%. Here is the quarterly split: Q1 at 3.6%; Q2 at 3.9%; Q3 at 3.8%; and Q4 at 4.4%. The risks are evenly balanced.

The MPC noted that inflation is currently below the target, supported by a sharp fall in food inflation. Moreover, there is a decisive improvement in the inflation outlook. As per projections, there is now greater confidence of a durable alignment of headline inflation with the target of 4% over a 12-month horizon.

The minutes of the MPC's meeting will be published on April 23, 2025. The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled from June 4 to 6, 2025.

Economy:

In India, growth is projected to accelerate to 6.7% in fiscal year (FY) 2025 and 6.8% in FY2026, according to the latest forecast by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Growth in the sub-region is expected to rise from 5.8% in 2024 to 6.0% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026.

Inflation in India is projected to moderate to 4.3% in FY2025 and 4.0% in FY2026, supported by easing food and global oil prices.

Buzzing Index:

The Nifty PSU Bank index slipped 2.52% to 6,092.55. The index slumped 2.52% in the past trading session.

Indian Bank (down 3.85%), Central Bank of India (down 3.65%), State Bank of India (down 3.4%), Union Bank of India (down 3.3%), Bank of Baroda (down 2.44%), Bank of India (down 2.03%), Indian Overseas Bank (down 1.9%), Punjab National Bank (down 1.25%), Canara Bank (down 1.21%) and UCO Bank (down 1.04%) declined.

Stocks in Spotlight:

Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) shed 0.30%. The company announced that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has approved the appointment of DK Sunil as chairperson and managing director (MD), effective from 9 April 2025.

NTPC Green Energy declined 1.04%. The company said that it has partnered with Mahatma Phule Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Technology to form NTPC-MAHAPREIT Green Energy.

Gensol Engineering dropped 4.98%. The company has announced the successful commissioning of its ground-mounted solar power plant in Panchet town of Dhanbad district in Jharkhand.

Global Surfaces jumped 5.50% after the company announced that its UAE-based manufacturing facility is expected to benefit from recently revised U.S. tariffs on engineered quartz imports from several Asian countries.

NBCC (India) rallied 4.77% after securing fresh work orders worth Rs 120.9 crore and entering into a strategic partnership with RailTel Corporation of India to jointly develop data centre infrastructure.

Prestige Estates Projects shed 0.72%. The company said that it had launched four projects across Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Hyderabad in Q4 FY25, and the aggregate gross development value (GDV) of these projects was Rs 16,133.8 crore.

Borosil declined 1.44%. The company announced that it has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Stylenest India (SIL), on 8 April 2025.

Madhav Infra Projects jumped 6.32% after the company received a letter of acceptance from National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for highway project worth Rs 323.82 crore.

Steel Strips Wheels (SSWL) dropped 4.84%. The company announced the receipt of a steel wheels business order valued at $5 million over a span of five years from a global original equipment manufacturer (OEM) based in the Southern Hemisphere.

Insolation Energy declined 2.37%. The company said that it has achieved consolidated revenue of Rs 1,338 crore for the year ended on 31 March 2025, which is higher by 80.49% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

Samvardhana Motherson International (SAMIL) slipped 1.70%. The company announced that its wholly owned subsidiary MSSL Mideast FZE, (MSSL ME) has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Samvardhana Motherson Global Operation FZCO (SMGOF) in United Arab Emirates.

Kranti Industries advanced 3.40% after the company received a purchase order worth Rs 6.84 crore from Bonfiglioli Transmission for the development of industrial machine parts (heavy-duty gearbox).

Vodafone Idea lost 1.39%. The company announced the allotment of equity shares worth Rs 36,950 crore to the Government of India, converting its spectrum dues into equity.

Zuari Industries fell 2.83%. The company announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Zuari Infraworld India, has entered into a binding term sheet with Texmaco Rail & Engineering to act as development manager (DM).

Sterlite Technologies declined 2.03%. The company said that it has partnered with Swoop Holdings to upgrade nearly 1,000 homes in Western Australia with high-speed fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) connectivity.

Senco Gold hit an upper circuit of 5% after the company's standalone revenue jumped 19.1% to over Rs 1,300 crore in Q4 FY25, driven by robust wedding season.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers shed 0.21%. The company said that it has received a letter of award (LoA) worth Rs 589.98 crore from the Govt of India for the construction and delivery of two coastal research vessels for the Geological Survey of India.

Cochin Shipyard lost 1.36%. The company said that it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Drydocks World, a DP World company, to jointly develop ship repair clusters in India.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) rose 0.74%. The company announced that Sembcorp Green Hydrogen India, a wholly owned subsidiary of Sembcorp Industries, will form a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with BPCL to develop renewable energy & green hydrogen projects across India.

Global Markets:

Dow Jones futures are down 205 points, indicating a negative opening in US stocks today.

European shares tumbled with markets struggling to maintain the positive momentum of the previous session as the U.S.′ country-specific tariffs started taking effect.

Most Asian stocks ended lower as U.S. President Donald Trump geared up to slap a jaw-dropping 104% tariff on Chinese goods. Oil prices took the hit too, tumbling to their lowest levels in four years as fears of a global recession tightened their grip on financial markets.

Late Tuesday, Washington confirmed that the tariff hike would take effect just after the stroke of midnight on Wednesday. The offshore yuan responded by hitting a record low of 7.4287 per U.S. dollar overnight.

Trump accused China of currency manipulation in a late-night press appearance but added that he still believed a deal would be struck eventually.

Analysts are now sounding the alarm bells, warning that this tariff escalation could tip the global economy into a full-blown recession.

Over in the U.S., the markets had a rough session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84%, weighed down by big names like Apple, which faces surging costs from the new China tariffs. The Nasdaq nosedived 2.15%, while the S&P 500 shed 1.57%, narrowly dodging official bear market territory but still ending below the symbolic 5,000 mark for the first time since April 2024.

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