International Grains Council or IGC has stated in its latest monthly update for October that the 2025/26 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast is hiked by 13 million (m) tonnes (t) m/m (month-on-month), to 2,425m. This marks a third consecutive upgrade and, similar to the prior month, the revision primarily reflects increases for wheat and barley, as latest data confirmed better than anticipated yields in a number of key producers. Compared to previous year, the latest estimate marks a rise of 4.21%. With only part of the increased supply channelled into consumption, pegged 5m t higher than before, at 2,400m, the projection for global ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is raised by 12m m/m, to a three-year high of 618m. Predominantly because of an uplift for wheat, the outlook for grains trade is boosted slightly from before, to 440m t.

IGC noted that pegged fractionally lower m/m, global soyabean output in 2025/26 is predicted little-changed y/y (year-on-year). While the figure for consumption is trimmed, reduced carry-in inventories feed through to a smaller nominal number for aggregate end-season stocks. Within the total, major exporters' reserves are cut significantly m/m, chiefly on adjustments for Brazil and Argentina. The projection for trade is uprated by more than 2m t to reflect potentially firmer Asian demand.

Chiefly linked to an upward revision for India, aggregate end-season rice inventories in 2024/25 are seen higher m/m, at around 185m t. With an uprated figure for carry-ins offsetting a reduced outlook for production, in large part linked to challenging conditions in Pakistan, combined stocks are predicted steady from before, at 187m t. The Council's expectations for trade in 2026 are also maintained at about 60m t, marginally higher y/y. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) dropped to a five-year low, with wheat and rice export prices especially weak.

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